Solution Lesson 14
Can someone please explain the Solution problem at the end of Lesson 14?
martha2A: March 1, 2015, 11:47 p.m.
The first explanation for it that uses the bubble tree map is incorrect because the father is equally likely to walk with either of his children. The correct explanation is on the next page (127). The way you come up with the answer is by using GG,BB,GB,BG to find the probability of what you want. For example, the probability of both children being boys is 1/4 since there is only one possibility out of all combinations of two children that gives us two of the children being boys. Let me know if you need more explanation.
weisbart: March 8, 2015, 1:10 p.m.
It's weird, isn't it? This is a problem that, using my intuition, I got wrong. Using the formalism of probability, I got it correct. It illustrates how important it is to work in a computationally consistent framework. Intuition just isn't enough...